Kai Neumann

This quantitative model is a small excerpt from a 1000+ factors model of a larger project. It allows to simulate the changes of a job market due to changes of available jobs or people seeking for jobs, people choosing to work only part time and a larger part of pensioners. While it would be fairly easy to model it through a classic system dynamics stock and flow structure it was fairly challenging to try it with the iMODELER's possibility to use stocks without delays. That is also the reason why I tried it the complicated way: in a model with classic stocks and their implicit delays some changes would take up to three years (the time step in our customer's model) to take effect. When you try this kind of comp ...»

Small model to show the limits and strengths of qualitative models when we look at loops.

Kleines qualitatives Modell für KNOW-WHY.NET und zur Vorbereitung auf einen Workshop, für den das als gewünschtes Thema angekündigt wurde.

Small model on product development (in this case Consideo's improvement of data import functionality of the iMODELER) and how to use same basic features of the iMODELER like change of perspectives, use of categories and filters and some of the analysis functionality like the new bar charts and the benefit from the new weighting that comes with version 6. For more see the presenter (Menu ... Presenter).

Dieses kleine Modell berücksichtigt die neuesten Meldungen zum Thema veröffentlicht von der eher konservativen Wirtschaftswoche: http://www.wiwo.de/politik/deutschland/studie-mindestlohn-entlastet-den-staat/5264072.html http://www.wiwo.de/politik/deutschland/mindestlohn-ueberraschung-bei-der-konjunkturprognose/11523840... 

Small exercise to model recycling of paper It can be used for glass or plastics as well. A scenario could be that there is a short term increase of demand or a extraordinarily low price so a paper mill decides to buy more wood which will with a delay lead to more recycled paper and a possible overproduction unless the purchase of wood is lowered again.

This is just a small model I have developed to prepare for a customer project. It is just on a yearly basis running for 10 years. There are two ways to model asset strategies. One is to simulate risks by Monte Carlo simulations as I did here. Very easy! Another is to use financial math to approximate the risks - which is not that easy and therefore I didn't do it here. However, not using Monte Carlo simulation would allow us to use the range function in order to identify an optimal portfolio. So, if there is anybody out there who would like to provide the formula to calculate the impacts of volatility on yields please share this on KNOW-WHY.NET. I'd happily help with the modeling. BTW: it would also be possib ...»

A limit to qualitative models is that they cannot show multiplicative effects. A famous example is the formula for successful people (see also M. Gladwell's "Outliers"). According to this our success is the multiplication of hard work, talent and luck. No luck, no success. Little talent, little success despite all effort and even luck.  Similar argumentation: http://www.greattransition.org/publication/whats-luck 

This model was developed with the help from the model "Comprehensive Enterprise Model" by Kai from KNOW-WHY.NET: https://www.know-why.net/model/A8rslLgjB2toQEfuOxlUWrw Please open it with iMODELER and expand the clustered factors to see all the details (or have a look at the collection of slides in the Menu...Presenter, first)

Just a small model on the developments of jobs to share on KNOW-WHY.NET for inspiration. Aspects like the increased demand for information technology and its consequences e.g. for less demand for expensive cars are not included, yet.