Kai Neumann

Migration has just started and it will become much worse. It is a symptom, a consequence of our exploitation of the world - which sounds idealistic but actually it is a fact that most economists easily agree to. We definitely can't take them all and the better they are are integrated the more will come. There is no silver-bullet to it but some measures (green factors) that we probably have to take all. What is interesting (see the Menu .... Presenter) is that long-term the help for migrants abroad has almost a negative impact. That is only because of the lack of the positive side effects from migration to our domestic work-force. But have a look for yourself and let us know what arguments are missing.

just a small model to understand why the stocks from wind energy providers are loosing value ... despite the increase in installations. Peter Senge described the "Growth and underinvestment" archetype - this model rather features the "Growth and over-investment" archetype.

a model on the bold or weird ideas of the Portuguese government to tackle the housing crisis: https://www.portugalresident.com/portugals-housing-crisis-just-keeps-on-getting-worse/ for more see the menu ... presenter note: you may change the colors of the factors and their fonts if your screen doesn't show them properly. 

The target .... The model should.... Participants Short ... Medium ... Long ... Categories/Colors (see Menu.... Filter) System boundaries

While listening to a presentation on the ISDC2023 where they showed a sophisticated way of calibrating parameters of a model to real data I decided to offer a simple solution using the iMODELER's iM-Optimizer. The idea is to minimize the deviation of the model results from the real data using a range() for all variable parameters. Simple as that though of course it also has some limitations.

they want it because others want it ... so others just need to stop wanting it (whether we refer to developed countries or wealthy opinion leaders). btw: the inspiration to this model came from the club party of our sailing club where we get a huge buffet with all sorts of meat and fish and only minor vegetarian alternatives (not as a main dish). Asking the organizers the reaction was, that even the wealthy people of the club expect to eat tasty meat for as little money as possible and that they wouldn't applaud only a reasonable bit of it combined with healthy and tasty alternatives. So demand is clear and thus the supply needs to meet it otherwise the organizers of the party would fail. Change could only co ...»

Whether it is Germany's "Heizungsgesetz" or the European Union's "Renaturation Law" there is a certain pattern how resistance evolves. Recently I was on workation sailing the Baltic Sea observing lots of signs of movements against the implementation of protected natural habitats in the Baltic Sea. The fishing 'industry', the tourism, and the water sports enthusiasts all seem united in their protest against the protection of the Baltic Sea. Fact is, that the Baltic Sea is in an extremely poor condition caused by industrial agriculture, over-fishing, and only after that the water sports which could be further divided into extensive uses like sailing and intensive uses like motor boats, jet skis and anchoring. O ...»

I am BoB, we are BoB, Best of Baltic ... SchülerInnen aus Naestved entwickeln sensationelles, ganzheitliches Konzept (siehe Link unten) BoB ist ein Konzept, wie Ostholstein + Region Zealand (Lolland/Falster/Sydsjælland) BoB werden. Vorteile: mehr Jobs nachhaltig (SDGs) stolz (Identität) Das Modell zeigt, wie umfangreich und durchdacht der Zusammenhang ist. Das BoB Konzept ist nicht einfach nur ein weiteres Tourismuskonzept, sondern zuende gedacht. Es bekommt Rückenwind durch Medien*, Politik, Wirtschaft und die Bevölkerung, weil es Nachhaltigkeit inkl. Klimaschutz als Kriterium hat eine echte Jugendbeteiligung auf Augenhöhe bedeutet systemisch zahlreiche selbstverstärkende Wirkungsschleifen aktiviert Zentral  ...»

the green party in Germany has become quite popular with its concrete action (not enough I would say, but nevermind). now the opposition but also the coalition partners have started a populist's war of wrong memes to diminish the success. this model shows the factual problems: - to call for e-fuels is a classic shifting the burden (https://www.know-why.net/model/C1kJRE4Z6_4plDyg7AWl8iw) - to call for market forces is good, yet there is the psychological obstacle that people want no change and that they don't see the potential costs of the future if they can spare money in the present. the industry in turn needs to be sure that change will come to make the right strategical decisions. so, to prohibit something ...»

I was recently preparing my contribution to the  System Dynamics Conference presenting our comprehensive quantitative GLU Model (global land use). At the same time I am repeatedly  confronted with the argument that in order to save the world we need industrialized farming with the use of pesticides, fertilizer, and high precision farming, because otherwise we would not have enough yields to feed the world and thus would need more deforestation. Well, while the quantitative model shows that without major changes we couldn't feed the growing populations and its growing demand for animal food anyway, this qualitative model compares the general levers we have.  This model is further described with the presenter.  ...»