Farmer's protests - a systemic view

Deutsche Version: It is absurd that the farmers are protesting against policies and not against the food industry and the people. they protest for lower costs only to make the industry richer instead for higher prices to strengthen their role in the market. Conventional agriculture is the major polluter of soil and water and one major reason for the loss of biodiversity, period. they need regulation. plus they contribute to climate change and the degradation of soils. their claim of good farming practices is bullshit since for decades we needed to come up with more regulation to minimize their negative impact. However, the model shows that conventional fa ...»

SDS Seminar 24 - Qualitative Modeling of the example of desalination in Portugal

just the beginning of a model for a seminar for the System Dynamics Society: Objective As a consequence of climate change many reasons face a growing lack of drinking water as well as water for agriculture. One option seem to be desalination plants but they are heavily disputed. The objective of the model is to find levers to secure the availability of drinking water. Participants ... Time short - this summer medium - next three years long - beyond three years Categories pink - overall target yellow - subtargets blue - resources red - hinderances, problems green - measures turquoise - external developments orange - ...  Attributescurren ...»

ARD: Hart aber Fair Sendung vom 4.12.23, die Argumentationen von Prof. Fuest

.... inspiriert durch die Aussagen von Prof. Fuest, dass der Ölpreis runtergehen wird und deshalb Öl halt weiterhin nur eben klimafreundlich nachgefragt werden müsste, und dass der grüne Boom nicht einsetzt.  Mein Kommentar im Forum der Sendung: Leider fehlt der systemische Blick: Ölpreis hängt von Exploration neuer Vorkommen ab, was von Leitplanken abhängt. Diese beeinflussen auch die Investition der heimischen Wirtschaft, und erst die erhöht die nationale Wertschöpfung und sorgt für einen Boom. Ein Boom und ein Klimageld können das finanzier- und akzeptierbar machen mit Einnahmen aus CO2-Steuern. Das ist das einzige, was wettbewerbstechnisch international relevant ist. Warum gibt es die Leitplanken nicht? D ...»

Die Geschichte wird urteilen - so es eine Zukunft gibt

Wir müssen uns gegen den Vorwurf der Ideologie wehren - es ist ein äußerst effektives Meme. Die, die es für die Wahrung von Partikularinteressen streuen, könnten wir "Ego-Trolle" wider dem Gemeinwohl nennen, und die, die es unbewusst aus Schutz vor Veränderungen weitertragen, "Troll-Lemminge". Aber vielleicht gibt es ja noch bessere Bezeichnungen. Transformation an sich braucht dann noch mehr: bzw. auf Deutsch: Ideologie ist nicht immer das, was der andere behauptet, sondern das, was nicht wissenschaftlich jenseits von Einzelveröffentlichungen bel ...»

Migration debate in Germany ... and elsewhere

Migration has just started and it will become much worse. It is a symptom, a consequence of our exploitation of the world - which sounds idealistic but actually it is a fact that most economists easily agree to. We definitely can't take them all and the better they are are integrated the more will come. There is no silver-bullet to it but some measures (green factors) that we probably have to take all. What is interesting (see the Menu .... Presenter) is that long-term the help for migrants abroad has almost a negative impact. That is only because of the lack of the positive side effects from migration to our domestic work-force. But have a look for yourself and let us know what arguments are missing.

Wind industry's growth and over-investment archetype

just a small model to understand why the stocks from wind energy providers are loosing value ... despite the increase in installations. Peter Senge described the "Growth and underinvestment" archetype - this model rather features the "Growth and over-investment" archetype.

Portugal's housing crisis - a systemic view

a model on the bold or weird ideas of the Portuguese government to tackle the housing crisis: for more see the menu ... presenter note: you may change the colors of the factors and their fonts if your screen doesn't show them properly. 

ECEM Workshop Model 2023

The target .... The model should.... Participants Short ... Medium ... Long ... Categories/Colors (see Menu.... Filter) System boundaries

Matching data example - calibrating a model

While listening to a presentation on the ISDC2023 where they showed a sophisticated way of calibrating parameters of a model to real data I decided to offer a simple solution using the iMODELER's iM-Optimizer. The idea is to minimize the deviation of the model results from the real data using a range() for all variable parameters. Simple as that though of course it also has some limitations.