Kai Neumann

the green party in Germany has become quite popular with its concrete action (not enough I would say, but nevermind). now the opposition but also the coalition partners have started a populist's war of wrong memes to diminish the success. this model shows the factual problems: - to call for e-fuels is a classic shifting the burden (https://www.know-why.net/model/C1kJRE4Z6_4plDyg7AWl8iw) - to call for market forces is good, yet there is the psychological obstacle that people want no change and that they don't see the potential costs of the future if they can spare money in the present. the industry in turn needs to be sure that change will come to make the right strategical decisions. so, to prohibit something ...»

I am currently writing a paper for the System Dynamics Review on our comprehensive quantitative GLU Model (global land use). At the same time I was recently again confronted with the argument that in order to save the world we need industrialized farming with the use of pesticides, fertilizer, and high precision farming because otherwise we would not have enough yields to feed the world and thus would need more deforestation. Well, while the quantitative model shows that without major changes we couldn't feed the growing populations and its growing demand for animal food anyway, this qualitative model compares the general levers we have.  I hope that I can soon publish a link to the paper. This model is furth ...»

The lack of systems thinking around the topic of e-fuels really hurts.  People need to understand the archetype of shifting the burden (to the intervenor), the vicious cycles from path dependencies and the psychological origin in the fear for change and selfish business interests.  Here some other insights on hydrogen of which I am actually a big fan: https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/ConsideoPaper-BEM-Engl.pdf https://www.know-why.net/model/Ckps4y3iZwQWd6YKcOb6qdQ https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/ConsideoPaper-ToC_Transformation_Engl.pdf https://www.consideo.com/papers-33.html

I have considered the "Letzte Generation" protests to be too harsh thinking that people as a reaction wouldn't sympathize with protesters and their cause anymore. But realizing how people react with hate just to stay in their comfort zone (and because of the fear of change) now shows me that like in the early days of F4F it takes the fact viral that we need drastic change and unmasks those who still don't get it. We need to change from 9 - 11 tons of CO2 eq per person per year to around 1 - 2 tons - no matter how China or the US are changing. So it is everything: less animal food, less use of cars, smaller living rooms, less traveling, fewer gadgets etc.. Funny thing: it could well mean more happiness, like w ...»

Being tired of the complaints that renewable energy is expensive, that we cannot afford the conservation of natural habitats, that not all people can purchase organic products, that our industry looses jobs, our citizens cannot bear the burden of the costs of sustainable solutions, and so forth I started this model. As it turned out it is not as easy as I thought. My original assumption was that any additional expenses should - with a high domestic value creation compared to the import of fossil fuels - help the domestic economy as a whole: higher expenses but lots of more jobs and income for domestic companies.  While this holds true for most regions in the world (Consideo together with Ecologic and others h ...»

This is a model from our latest paper: https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/Why_iMODELER.pdf 

This is a model from our latest paper: https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/Why_iMODELER.pdf 

This is a model from our latest paper: https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/Why_iMODELER.pdf 

This is just a small model for a depiction of the reasons why modeling hasn't become a common practice, yet. It is used in our latest paper that presents the unique features of the iMODELER: https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/Why_iMODELER.pdf