Kai Neumann

Das Modell wird im Presenter beschrieben! Systemgrenzen: Gentech, Urban Gardening (hat Consideo im D3 Modell für das Umweltbundesamt untersucht), Fischfarmen, etc. wurden ausgeklammert

This is our third model on the corona crisis (COVID-19). It explores the possible post corona world. Together with the other two models it is featured in our corresponding paper: https://www.consideo.com/papers-33.html  (available in German as well) The first model was our simulation model that somehow seems to be the most advanced model on the development of infections with dynamic parameters: https://www.know-why.net/model/CHFWUVddNJsog2quA15x0PQ  According to this there won't be enough intensive care capacities to prevent deaths unless we wait for more than 700 days, find a cure/vaccine or shift to a strategy to isolate just high risk parts of the population.   The second model is a qualitative cause and e ...»

Target Collecting and exploring different arguments and ideas around the so called Corona crisis in a qualitative cause and effect model that after weighting the interconnections allows for analyses through Insight Matrices and loop analysis. Time horizon Short term: 1 month Medium term: 3 months Long term: beyond 1 year More....For more please look at the presenter, explore the model via iMODELER as a freeware or have a look at the corresponding paper: https://www.consideo.com/papers-33.html (available in German as well)

Link to corresponding paper: https://www.consideo.com/papers-33.html (English) https://www.consideo.de/papers.html (German) Summary - it really is severe The model shows how crucial the availability of a cure and vaccine has become. The death toll is directly related to the intensive care capacities that are totally unrealistic to keep up with any slow down of infections. The flu has a toll of 0.1 percent, Covid-19 allegedly a toll of 1.1 percent though some areas like Italy already show a rise close to 10 percent once the limits of the capacities are reached. What is included with the model It startet as just a small general model on tipping points (using the Bass function that can be found e.g. in Sterman's ...»

Fareed Zakaria argues that right wing terrorism is related to something else but lack of income. He refers to this study that states it is the correlation between migration and increase of right wing violence: https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/5/1/179/5487267  With this model I started to wonder whether this is plausible to me. I'd say the underlying cause could still be lack of perspective but also the feeling of an attack of one's values as well as the feeling of lack of education. What do you think? In addition: What would you say is the difference with left wing extremism? Aren't the mechanism the same? Post your arguments or even place your own model.

anbei ein kleines Modell, um mir selbst der Frage, ob Menschen glücklicher sind, wenn sie sich selbst beschenken, oder wenn sie andere beschenken. Die naheliegende Antwort "es kommt darauf an" sei hiermit ein Stück weit erklärt. Integrations- und Weiterentwicklungsgefühl sind die metasystemische Erklärung menschlichen Handelns nach der KNOW-WHY-Denkweise.

Here we go with this year's riddle. Try to connect the following factors in a meaningful way: - Achieving small targets - Energy, strength - Going for the targets - Happiness - Passive joy from TV, junk food, purchases, etc. - Relaxing - Setting small targets - Stress from job, family etc. - Time for reflection, awareness You can import the model your account or start from scratch. Please send your answer to info@consideo.com and DO NOT post them here so others have chance to try it for themselves. After a while we could discuss the solutions right here. The model contains a lot on modeling and some psychological aspects for everyone. Last year more than 100 people tried the riddle, most getting it right. It  ...»

just the start of a small model that I need for part 5 of the paper series "A culture of reflection"

Ein kleines Modell, um mir selbst der aktuellen Entwicklung klarer zu werden. Andrea Nahles tritt wenig verwunderlich zurück, eh sie abgewählt wird oder nur ein schlechtes Ergebnis erhält. Greenpeace protestiert vor CDU. Die CDU hingegen ermahnt die SPD, doch wenigstens das Kohlegesetz durchzubringen - so schlecht ist dieses Gesetz, dass es schnell festgezurrt werden muss. Danach wird die CDU ein bisschen mehr Klimaschutz zur Beruhigung der Mitte der Gesellschaft ("wir tun doch schon was, sollen erst einmal die anderen" .... https://www.know-why.net/model/CDFD1KOToIGxL1tyhDkML-g) zusammen mit der SPD anbieten. In der SPD wird irgendwer anderes CDU Politik für die Mitte, wie es sie vor 10 Jahren vielleicht gab ...»

Kollaboratives Workshop-Modell zur PMWelt 2019 in Münchenvon Kai Neumann, Consideo GmbH, neumann@consideo.com https://www.know-why.net/model/CYCyF9d6IZ5FWeKPihFQtew  Motivation:"Projekte scheitern, wenn entscheidende Faktoren nicht berücksichtigt werden oder Entwicklungen nicht richtig eingeschätzt werden" Gibt es noch andere Gründe, die nicht letztlich genau das zur Ursache haben? ... selbst auf strategischer oder auf Portfolio-Ebene, die Dinge richtig zu tun vs. die richtigen Dinge zu tun. Mit dem Modeln bzw. Visualisieren und Analysieren von Wirkungszusammenhängen wollen wir das Scheitern verhindern, unsere eigene Varietät erhöhen und der der Realität anpassen. Explorative, qualitative Ursache-Wirkungsmode ...»