Kai Neumann

While listening to a presentation on the ISDC2023 where they showed a sophisticated way of calibrating parameters of a model to real data I decided to offer a simple solution using the iMODELER's iM-Optimizer. The idea is to minimize the deviation of the model results from the real data using a range() for all variable parameters. Simple as that though of course it also has some limitations.

they want it because others want it ... so others just need to stop wanting it (whether we refer to developed countries or wealthy opinion leaders). btw: the inspiration to this model came from the club party of our sailing club where we get a huge buffet with all sorts of meat and fish and only minor vegetarian alternatives (not as a main dish). Asking the organizers the reaction was, that even the wealthy people of the club expect to eat tasty meat for as little money as possible and that they wouldn't applaud only a reasonable bit of it combined with healthy and tasty alternatives. So demand is clear and thus the supply needs to meet it otherwise the organizers of the party would fail. Change could only co ...»

Whether it is Germany's "Heizungsgesetz" or the European Union's "Renaturation Law" there is a certain pattern how resistance evolves. Recently I was on workation sailing the Baltic Sea observing lots of signs of movements against the implementation of protected natural habitats in the Baltic Sea. The fishing 'industry', the tourism, and the water sports enthusiasts all seem united in their protest against the protection of the Baltic Sea. Fact is, that the Baltic Sea is in an extremely poor condition caused by industrial agriculture, over-fishing, and only after that the water sports which could be further divided into extensive uses like sailing and intensive uses like motor boats, jet skis and anchoring. O ...»

I am BoB, we are BoB, Best of Baltic ... SchülerInnen aus Naestved entwickeln sensationelles, ganzheitliches Konzept (siehe Link unten) BoB ist ein Konzept, wie Ostholstein + Region Zealand (Lolland/Falster/Sydsjælland) BoB werden. Vorteile: mehr Jobs nachhaltig (SDGs) stolz (Identität) Das Modell zeigt, wie umfangreich und durchdacht der Zusammenhang ist. Das BoB Konzept ist nicht einfach nur ein weiteres Tourismuskonzept, sondern zuende gedacht. Es bekommt Rückenwind durch Medien*, Politik, Wirtschaft und die Bevölkerung, weil es Nachhaltigkeit inkl. Klimaschutz als Kriterium hat eine echte Jugendbeteiligung auf Augenhöhe bedeutet systemisch zahlreiche selbstverstärkende Wirkungsschleifen aktiviert Zentral  ...»

the green party in Germany has become quite popular with its concrete action (not enough I would say, but nevermind). now the opposition but also the coalition partners have started a populist's war of wrong memes to diminish the success. this model shows the factual problems: - to call for e-fuels is a classic shifting the burden (https://www.know-why.net/model/C1kJRE4Z6_4plDyg7AWl8iw) - to call for market forces is good, yet there is the psychological obstacle that people want no change and that they don't see the potential costs of the future if they can spare money in the present. the industry in turn needs to be sure that change will come to make the right strategical decisions. so, to prohibit something ...»

I was recently preparing my contribution to the  System Dynamics Conference presenting our comprehensive quantitative GLU Model (global land use). At the same time I am repeatedly  confronted with the argument that in order to save the world we need industrialized farming with the use of pesticides, fertilizer, and high precision farming, because otherwise we would not have enough yields to feed the world and thus would need more deforestation. Well, while the quantitative model shows that without major changes we couldn't feed the growing populations and its growing demand for animal food anyway, this qualitative model compares the general levers we have.  This model is further described with the presenter.  ...»

The lack of systems thinking around the topic of e-fuels really hurts.  People need to understand the archetype of shifting the burden (to the intervenor), the vicious cycles from path dependencies and the psychological origin in the fear for change and selfish business interests.  Here some other insights on hydrogen of which I am actually a big fan: https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/ConsideoPaper-BEM-Engl.pdf https://www.know-why.net/model/Ckps4y3iZwQWd6YKcOb6qdQ https://www.consideo.com/files/consideo/pdfs/papers/eng/ConsideoPaper-ToC_Transformation_Engl.pdf https://www.consideo.com/papers-33.html

I have considered the "Letzte Generation" protests to be too harsh thinking that people as a reaction wouldn't sympathize with protesters and their cause anymore. But realizing how people react with hate just to stay in their comfort zone (and because of the fear of change) now shows me that like in the early days of F4F it takes the fact viral that we need drastic change and unmasks those who still don't get it. We need to change from 9 - 11 tons of CO2 eq per person per year to around 1 - 2 tons - no matter how China or the US are changing. So it is everything: less animal food, less use of cars, smaller living rooms, less traveling, fewer gadgets etc.. Funny thing: it could well mean more happiness, like w ...»

Being tired of the complaints that renewable energy is expensive, that we cannot afford the conservation of natural habitats, that not all people can purchase organic products, that our industry looses jobs, our citizens cannot bear the burden of the costs of sustainable solutions, and so forth I started this model. As it turned out it is not as easy as I thought. My original assumption was that any additional expenses should - with a high domestic value creation compared to the import of fossil fuels - help the domestic economy as a whole: higher expenses but lots of more jobs and income for domestic companies.  While this holds true for most regions in the world (Consideo together with Ecologic and others h ...»